Operating-point board
LegalBench (legal reasoning) · Prospective · Fβ β
| # | Model | Fβ | Prec | Rec | Task acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0.927 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 0.87 |
| 2 | mistral-medium-3.1 | 0.863 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| 3 | llama-3.1-70b-instruct | 0.861 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| 4 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.859 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| 5 | mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct | 0.854 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.85 |
| 6 | gpt-5.2 | 0.852 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| 7 | deepseek-r1 | 0.851 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| 8 | gemini-2.5-pro | 0.822 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| 9 | claude-3.5-sonnet | 0.821 | 0.89 | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| 10 | gemini-2.5-flash | 0.810 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.84 |
| 11 | claude-sonnet-4.5 | 0.795 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.86 |
| 12 | llama-3.3-70b-instruct | 0.763 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.88 |
| 13 | claude-haiku-4.5 | 0.742 | 0.87 | 0.65 | 0.86 |
| 14 | gemini-2.0-flash-001 | 0.734 | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| 15 | deepseek-chat | 0.674 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.84 |
| 16 | claude-3-haiku | 0.660 | 0.89 | 0.53 | 0.91 |
| 17 | qwen-2.5-72b-instruct | 0.626 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.84 |
| 18 | gpt-4o-mini | 0.600 | 0.86 | 0.46 | 0.85 |
| 19 | gpt-4o | 0.576 | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.83 |
Pairwise signal on LegalBench
Observed correlation
0.024
mean τ-b · 0 = no signal
Baseline correlation
-0.000
permutation null · ≈ 0
Model pairs
171
unit = pair, not model
Significant pairs
25.7%
p<0.05 after FDR · not effect size
Observed model pairs Base-rate-matched null Calibration-preserving null 5%-95% observed: -0.060 to 0.127
Confidence structure: the shared-difficulty factor
Information the model doesn’t use
| Benchmark | Model | Internal | Population | Same-context text | Post-hoc text |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LegalBench | Gemini Flash | 0.474 | 0.532 | 0.788 | 0.861 |
Values are ROC AUCs from the paper's calibration-ROC table (SI). "Same-context text" is the pre-judgement reasoning trace available before the binary confidence commit; "post-hoc text" reads the answer attempt and is an upper-bound comparison.
The four metacognitive outcomes on LegalBench
No curated cases for this selection yet — outcome-matrix extraction currently covers a sample of MMLU-Pro trials.